A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
